写作特点
- 给一篇短文，30分钟，指出主要逻辑错误并提出建议建议
辩证、批判的思维方式
主要错误类型：- 外推类错误：“十年前”
- 充分必要条件错误：“老俞创立。。。=>时代”
- 错误类比：中国对比北京
- Ex: 题库No.193
The Department of Education in the state of Attra recommends that high school students be assigned homework every day. Yet a recent statewide survey of high school math and science teachers calls the usefulness of daily homework into question. In the district of Sanlee, 86 percent of the teachers reported assigning homework three to five times a week, whereas in the district of Marlee, less than 25 percent of the teachers reported assigning homework three to five times a week. Yet the students in Marlee earn better grades overall and are less likely to be required to repeat a year of school than are the students in Sanlee. Therefore, all teachers in our high schools should assign homework no more than twice a week, if at all.- Survey调查类错误
样本是否足够大；是否具有代表性（只涉及到math和science，不能推出全部） - 因果关系类错误
作业少和成绩好的因果关系，其他原因存在 - 错误类比
“让步”语气；未必可以把A的示例“移植”到B
- Survey调查类错误
Argument的写作特点和整体结构
- 第一段：开头段
主要是归纳论点，说明论点有问题，存在逻辑漏洞，准备发起进攻。 - 第二段-第三段（第四段）：正文段
分类别去攻击各个逻辑错误 - 第五段：结尾段
作者的结论似乎是合理的，但是通过论证不是这样的。因此作者应该考虑其他情况。
如何写开头段
- C-E-F结构（ETS标准方法）
C-Conclusion 结论：结论未必是第一句话（可能第一句话是假结论，第二句才是真结论）
E-Evidence 证据： 要注意改写
F-Flaw 缺陷 - Template
- Ex: 题库No.1
The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Nature’s Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.
“Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville’s schoolchildren are required to participate in a ‘fitness for life’ program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age.”
C: We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents.
E1: Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs.
E2: The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full.
E3: We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville’s schoolchildren are required to participate in a ‘fitness for life’ program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age.
如何写正文段
- 合理安排逻辑错误的攻击顺序：三种攻击顺序，只推荐第三种
- 按照逻辑错误出现的顺序进行顺序式攻击
- 按照逻辑错误的主次进行攻击
- 按照逻辑体系进行让步式攻击
- Ex: 题库No.2
The following appeared in a letter sent by a committee of homeowners from the Deerhaven Acres to all homeowners in Deerhaven Acres.
“Seven years ago, homeowners in nearby Brookville community adopted a set of restrictions on how the community’s yards should be landscaped and what colors the exteriors of homes should be painted. Since then, average property values have tripled in Brookville. In order to raise property values in Deerhaven Acres, we should adopt our own set of restrictions on landscaping and housepainting.”
主要错误：- 外推类错误 Seven years ago
- 因果类错误 Since then，其实只是时序关系
- 错误类比
攻击：地产平均价格翻了三番的结果未必是由于规定房屋颜色这一说法导致的，很有可能来自其他原因……即便地产平均价格翻了三番是由于规定房屋颜色的原因，但这也只是7年前的一个因果关系，这一趋势未必在将来会延续下去……即便地产平均价格翻了三番是由于规定房屋颜色的原因，同时这一趋势也能够延续到将来，但是这也只是B社区存在的因果关系和未来趋势，这样一个趋势以及因果关系以及这样一种做法未必能够移植到D社区……
如何写结尾段
- 作者在某结论上是毫无根据的，因为他没能够提出有效的证据去支持他的结论和观点。只是通过几个错误的假设和英国关系、调查是不能够说明任何问题的。如果要使得论证更加令人信服，论者必须提供哪些方面的信息、哪些方面的证据、哪些方面的调查数据。只有包含了以上提出的假设因素之后，论者方能够体现出他更强的逻辑性。这篇文章也才能够被人信服。
- 注意虚拟语气
调查类逻辑错误
- 标志词：Survey, Study
- 攻击：样本的质量，数量和取样过程是否科学合理
- Procedure调查过程
- Selective Sample选择性、片面性样本
攻击点：样本选择不随机、不具代表性
攻击技巧：调查对象前一系列限定性定语或修饰语
Ex: 题库No.3 大概有80多道题目涉及此小类错误
The following appeared in a newspaper article about law firms in the city of Megalopolis.
“In Megalopolis, the number of law school graduates who went to work for large, corporate firms declined by 15 percent over the last three years, whereas an increasing number of graduates took jobs at small, general practice firms. Even though large firms usually offer much higher salaries, law school graduates are choosing to work for the smaller firms most likely because they experience greater job satisfaction at smaller firms. In a survey of first-year students at a leading law school, most agreed with the statement that earning a high salary was less important to them than job satisfaction. This finding suggests that the large, corporate firms of Megalopolis will need to offer graduates more benefits and incentives and reduce the number of hours they must work.”
攻击：这个调查只调查了一年级的学生，一年级的学生不能代表毕业生。同时这个调查也只调查了法学院的一年级学生，法学院的一年级学生不能代表其他学院的学生，更不能代表其他学院的毕业生。同时这个调查之调查了顶尖法学院，顶尖法学院不能代表M地区所有恰法学院的就业情况。
- Quantity of the Sample样本数量太少
攻击点：样本数量少，即便有典型性也不能说明问题。
Ex: 题库No.180
The following is a recommendation from the personnel director to the president of Acme Publishing Company.
“Many other companies have recently stated that having their employees take the Easy Read Speed-Reading Course has greatly improved productivity. One graduate of the course was able to read a five-hundred-page report in only two hours; another graduate rose from an assistant manager to vice president of the company in under a year. Obviously, the faster you can read, the more information you can absorb in a single workday. Moreover, Easy Read costs only $500 per employee—a small price to pay when you consider the benefits to Acme. Included in this fee is a three-week seminar in Spruce City and a lifelong subscription to the Easy Read newsletter. Clearly, Acme would benefit greatly by requiring all of our employees to take the Easy Read course.”
攻击：One graduate … another graduate …数量太少 - 攻击语言
- Selective Sample选择性、片面性样本
- Result of the Survey调查结果
- 数据无意义<小错误>
Ex: 题库No.194（高频题）
A recent study suggests that people who are left-handed are more likely to succeed in business than are right-handed people. Researchers studied photographs of 1,000 prominent business executives and found that 21 percent of these executives wrote with their left hand. So the percentage of prominent business executives who are left-handed (21 percent) is almost twice the percentage of people in the general population who are left-handed (11 percent). Thus, people who are left-handed would be well advised to pursue a career in business, whereas people who are right-handed would be well advised to imitate the business practices exhibited by left-handers.
攻击点：左撇子在著名商业经理中的比例比在正常人群中高不能代表左撇子适合做商业经理
Ex: 题库No.14
The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town.
“There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A national survey conducted last month indicated that many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring.”
攻击点：大花园杂志内容可能和种菜无关系，目的也不清楚，发行量也不清楚 - 数据是否含糊vague（数据多是错，数据少是错，没说数量更是错）
标志词：all, many, a number of, most绝对数量; percentage, proportion相对比值
绝对数量和相对比值均需在调查中提供，否则就有问题- 攻击“无相对比值”
- 攻击“无绝对数值”
Ex: 题库No.102
The following appeared in a letter from the mayor of Tudor City.
“After a major airline chose Yorkville as its regional flight hub, the number of businesses in that city almost doubled and local tax revenue increased by 50 percent. In addition, as travel to Yorkville became easier, most respondents to a survey of the country’s top executives identified Yorkville as a desirable place to transact business. To secure efficient transportation for Tudor City and stimulate our local economy, we should build a new airport, like the one in Yorkville, that is suitable for a regional flight hub.”
攻击点：double，无绝对数值 - 攻击“无相对比值”
- Respondents回应者错误<小错误>
Ex: 题库No.115
The following appeared in a clothing industry trade journal in the country of Sartoria.
“A popular fashion magazine recently conducted a survey of consumers’ opinions about clothing prices, using prepaid mailing envelopes. Eighty-nine percent of the approximately 20,000 respondents
reported that they were either “dissatisfied” or “very dissatisfied” with current clothing prices. The large number of responses indicates that the Sartorian clothing industry is at risk. Given the survey results, clothing manufacturers must find a way to reduce prices in order to keep their existing customers and maintain their businesses.”
攻击点：出现Respondents，回应者可能只占被调查者的一小部分，因而获得的数据所占比例更小，强调占overall的比例而不是respondents中的比例
- Who conducted the survey?调查者错误<小错误>
cross-bencher 中立的 nonaligned
Ex: 题库No.179
The following is a memorandum written by the director of personnel to the president of the Cedar Corporation.
“It would be a mistake to rehire the Good-Taste Company to supply the food in our employee cafeteria next year. It is the second most expensive caterer in the city. In addition, its prices have risen in each of the last three years, and it refuses to provide meals for people on special diets. Just last month three employees complained to me that they no longer eat in the cafeteria because they find the experience ‘unbearable.’ Our company should instead hire Discount Foods. Discount is a family-owned local company and it offers a varied menu of fish and poultry. I recently tasted a sample lunch at one of the many companies that Discount serves and it was delicious—an indication that hiring Discount will lead to improved employee satisfaction.”
攻击点：‘我’最近在由D提供服务的公司之一品尝了一份样品。。。这说明。。。调查者可能存在着利益冲突 - When was the survey conducted?调查时间错误<小错误>
在时间轴上，做调查的时间和通过调查得出结论的时间在时间上足够的接近
Ex: 题库No.36
The following appeared in an article written by Dr. Karp, an anthropologist.
“Twenty years ago Dr. Field, a noted anthropologist, visited the island of Tertia and concluded from his observations that children in Tertia were reared by an entire village rather than by their own biological parents. However, my recent interviews with children living in the group of islands that includes Tertia show that these children spend much more time talking about their biological parents than about other adults in the village. This research proves that Dr. Field’s conclusion about Tertian village culture is false, and thus that the observation-centered approach to studying cultures is invalid. Because they are using the interview-centered method, my team of graduate students working in Tertia will establish a much more accurate understanding of child-rearing traditions there and in other island cultures.”
攻击点：调查的时间前后差了20年，理所应当可能得出不同的结论
- 数据无意义<小错误>
Sufficient Evidence and Necessary Condition 充分必要条件类错误
- Sufficient Evidence 充分条件
标志次：once
攻击点：A不充分导致B, B的发生还依赖于它因（C D E…）
Ex: 题库No.170
For the past five years, consumers in California have been willing to pay twice as much for oysters from the northeastern Atlantic Coast as for Gulf Coast oysters. This trend began shortly after harmful bacteria were found in a few raw Gulf Coast oysters. But scientists have now devised a process for killing the bacteria. Once consumers are made aware of the increased safety of Gulf Coast oysters, they are likely to be willing to pay as much for Gulf Coast as for northeastern Atlantic Coast oysters, and greater profits for Gulf Coast oyster producers will follow.
攻击：安全性的提高这一条件是顾客购买商品时要考虑的一个因素，但不是顾客购买的充分因素。顾客是否会购买还依赖于许多其他因素共同构成，比如：牡蛎的价格是否合理，口味是否合理等。所有原因综合可能才会导致消费者对于牡蛎的购买与否。
- Necessary Condition 必要条件
作者在原文中一般会指出：A的发生是导致B发生的必要条件
攻击时要指出：没A的发生，如果有C D E…任何一个到两个因素的发生也可以导致B的发生
标志词：极端性词汇如only, extrem
Ex: 题库No.195（难题之一）有几十道题目
The following is a letter from an editor at Liber Publishing Company to the company’s president.
“In recent years, Liber has unfortunately moved away from its original mission: to publish the works of regional small-town authors instead of those of big-city authors. Just last year, 90 percent of the novels we published were written by authors who maintain a residence in a big city. Although this change must have been intended to increase profits, it has obviously backfired, because Liber is now in serious financial trouble. The only way to address this problem is to return to our original mission. If we return to publishing only the works of regional small-town authors, our financial troubles will soon be resolved.”
攻击：图书卖的不好而导致财政问题，不是由于大城镇还是小城镇这个因素决定的。更多的是取决于图书的印刷质量，图书的价格，图书的宣传方式，甚至图书的内容类别。因此，到底应该采取哪方面的措施需要仔细的考究和市场调研，而不能主观的认为小城镇这一条件是唯一条件。
Cause and Effect Fallacies 因果关系类错误
充分必要类错误一般是对将来的预测，而因果关系类错误一般是对过去的判断
- Non Sequitur 无因果类错误
机理：作者一般指出A发生导致B发生，即A是B的原因，B是A的结果；我们要破坏这层因果关系，指出B这一结果的发生是其他原因导致的。
标志词：bacause, so, therefore, as a consequence, consequencely, hence但不一定存在标志词
Ex: 题库No.212
The following appeared in a memorandum from the new president of the Patriot car manufacturing company.
“In the past, the body styles of Patriot cars have been old-fashioned, and our cars have not sold as well as have our competitors’ cars. But now, since many regions in this country report rapid increases in the numbers of newly licensed drivers, we should be able to increase our share of the market by selling cars to this growing population. Thus, we should discontinue our oldest models and concentrate instead on manufacturing sporty cars. We can also improve the success of our marketing campaigns by switching our advertising to the Youth Advertising agency which has successfully promoted the country’s leading soft drink.”
攻击：导致车卖的不好的原因可能不是由于车型过时不过时这一因素决定的，而是由于其他原因。比如：价位过高，消费者承受不起，车的性能不好，养车费用太高，耗油量大等。
- Post hoc, ergo proper hoc 时序因果关系错误
机理：作者一般来说会指出几年前发生的事情A，几年后发生事情B，作者在本来只是存在时序性关系的事件之间强行建立了因果关系；我们要破除这层逻辑关系，只保留时序关系。
标志词：after this, since then, because of this, therefore
Ex: 题库No.2
The following appeared in a letter sent by a committee of homeowners from the Deerhaven Acres to all homeowners in Deerhaven Acres.
“Seven years ago, homeowners in nearby Brookville community adopted a set of restrictions on how the community’s yards should be landscaped and what colors the exteriors of homes should be painted. Since then, average property values have tripled in Brookville. In order to raise property values in Deerhaven Acres, we should adopt our own set of restrictions on landscaping and housepainting.”
攻击：B平均价格翻了3翻发生在后，未必是由于发生在前的规定房屋颜色导致的结果；很可能来源于其他原因，比如：人们对于房屋的需求量增大了，经济发展了等。
- Concurrence 同时因果错误
机理：在时间轴的某一个段内或某一个时刻上，AB两个事件同时发生，但作者在两事件中强行加入了逻辑联系或因果联系。我们要破除这层逻辑关系。
标志词：also, meanwhile, with, parallel, under
Ex: 题库No.85
The following appeared in the letter to an editor of a Myrian newspaper.
“Under Governor Winslow’s leadership over the past four years, Myria has enjoyed unprecedented prosperity. Average wage increases this year are higher than they have been at any time since the 1970′s, the number of people who report being unemployed has decreased by 10 percent, and construction of new homes is up by one third. In contrast, over the past four years Governor Winslow’s opponent, Mr. Homer, has been mayor of a city in which only a small number of new businesses have opened. If Myrians want another four years like the past four years, they should reelect Governor Winslow.”
攻击：M经历的空前繁荣与W出任州长同时发生，但是M的繁荣未必是由于W领导导致的，很有可能是W地区的地理位置好、商家看中、投资力度大或者国家给予M经济政策更加宽松导致的，很可能任何人当州长都可以使M空前繁荣。
只开展很少的新型工业不代表这个城市经济不繁荣，有可能这个城市以传统工业为主，但经济发展依然很好；即便这个城市的确经济发展不好，但未必是由于市长构成了这个原因，有可能是城市地理位置不好，商业发展滞后等原因导致的。
- Confuse the cause and effect 混淆因果错误
机理：作者说A的发生导致B的发生，首先攻击两者之间不存在因果关系；进而让步，即便真的存在因果关系，但似乎我们通过常理可以看出，更多的可能是由于B的发生导致A的发生。
让步式攻击，先攻击其他类型，再攻击本类别错误
Ex: 题库No.25 题库中有不少这样的题目
The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.
“Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View’s tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell’s economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View.”
攻击无因果：O开设了许多新的商业以及税收增加不是由于新的高尔夫球场以及独家旅馆的建立所导致的，很有可能来源于其他原因。
混淆因果关系：即便这两个事件的确存在因果关系，但似乎常理告诉我们应当是商业发展所导致税收增加以至于导致的结果是有能力建立一个新的市立高尔夫球场和独家旅馆。
Changing Scope Fallacies 范围变化类错误
标志词：throughout the country, nationwide, statewide, all over, overall
题库中有70-80题
- Different Concepts 偷换概念
论据描述的是A，可是结论却是B
Ex: 题库No.167
A folk remedy* for insomnia, the scent in lavender flowers, has now been proved effective. In a recent study, 30 volunteers with chronic insomnia slept each night for three weeks on lavender-scented pillows in a controlled room where their sleep was monitored. During the first week, volunteers continued to take their usual sleeping medication. They slept soundly but wakened feeling tired. During the second week, the volunteers discontinued their medication. As a result, they slept less soundly than the previous week and felt even more tired. During the third week, the volunteers slept longer and more soundly than in the previous two weeks. This shows that over a short period of time lavender cures insomnia.
remedy偏方<注释不要攻击！！>
攻击：insomnia和睡得香不香和长不长没关系
- What is true for a member is also for the group 由个体推整体
Ex: 题库No.8
The following appeared in a memorandum issued by the strategic planning department at Omni Inc.
“Mesa Foods, a manufacturer of snack foods that currently markets its products within a relatively small region of the country, has strong growth potential. Mesa enjoyed a 20 percent increase in profits last year, and its best-selling product, Diabolique Salsa, has had increased sales over each of the past three years. Since Omni Inc. is interested in reaching 14-to-25 year olds, the age group that consumes the most snack food, we should buy Mesa Foods, and concentrate in particular on marketing Diabolique Salsa throughout the country.”
攻击：无法由个体地区推得全国情况，因为不同地区的居民对于食品的口味不同，种类不同；因此有可能存在的情况是，我们全国的其他地区有可能不习惯于Diabolique Salsa.
- Assuming that characteristics of a group apply to each group member 由整体推个体
Ex: 题库No.206 重点题库
The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Parkville Daily Newspaper.
“Throughout the country last year, as more and more children below the age of nine participated in youth-league softball and soccer, over 80,000 of these young players suffered injuries. When interviewed for a recent study, youth-league softball players in several major cities also reported psychological pressure from coaches and parents to win games. Furthermore, education experts say that long practice sessions for these sports take away time that could be used for academic activities. Since the disadvantages apparently outweigh any advantages, we in Parkville should discontinue organized athletic competition for children under nine.”
全部都有，整体->个体以及个体->整体
- Average 平均类错误
平均无法推得个体情况，个体也无法推得平均情况
Ex: 题库No.240
The following appeared in a memo written by a dean at Buckingham College.
“To serve the housing needs of our students, Buckingham College should build a new dormitory. Buckingham’s enrollment is growing and, based on current trends, should double over the next fifty years, thus making existing dormitories inadequate. Moreover, the average rent for an apartment in our town has increased in recent years. Consequently, students will find it increasingly difficult to afford off-campus housing. Finally, an attractive new dormitory would make prospective students more likely to enroll at Buckingham.”
攻击：平均租金的上涨未必代表我们学校所字啊的地区的房租也会上涨
Incomplete Thought 考虑问题不全面
- Failing to weigh the advantage and disadvantage thoroughly
机理：单一的考虑问题
Ex: 题库No.206
The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Parkville Daily Newspaper.
“Throughout the country last year, as more and more children below the age of nine participated in youth-league softball and soccer, over 80,000 of these young players suffered injuries. When interviewed for a recent study, youth-league softball players in several major cities also reported psychological pressure from coaches and parents to win games. Furthermore, education experts say that long practice sessions for these sports take away time that could be used for academic activities. Since the disadvantages apparently outweigh any advantages, we in Parkville should discontinue organized athletic competition for children under nine.”
攻击：即便体育比赛会带来伤病、受伤，产生一定的心理压力，但是我们不能忽略体育部赛对于青少年身体以及心理的积极作用。比如：让孩子更加的阳光，身体发育更加的健康等。
Ex: 题库No.96
The following appeared in a magazine focusing on health and fitness.
“A recent study of several nutritional supplements showed that subjects who took a daily pill containing luceen had significantly better vision of distant objects than subjects in the study who took other nutritional supplements. Luceen appears naturally in a tasty fruit that grows on the island of Bonopia, and very few inhabitants of that island wear eyeglasses or other corrective lenses. Such evidence suggests that people who develop vision problems should take regular luceen supplements.”
差异概念：不戴眼镜一定代表视力没有问题吗？
即便L物质可以治愈视力有问题的人，但是否可能带来负面影响呢？
远距离视力 vs 视力有问题 以部分推整体
- Profit<重要逻辑错误>
机理：作者通过做一个什么事情之后，势必将来会产生一个利润（Profit）。利润是两个因素共同作用之后的结果。利润=收入 – 成本，作者只是片面强调了收入的增加，但是没有阐明成本的问题。
标志词：profit, profitable
Ex: 题库No.170
For the past five years, consumers in California have been willing to pay twice as much for oysters from the northeastern Atlantic Coast as for Gulf Coast oysters. This trend began shortly after harmful bacteria were found in a few raw Gulf Coast oysters. But scientists have now devised a process for killing the bacteria. Once consumers are made aware of the increased safety of Gulf Coast oysters, they are likely to be willing to pay as much for Gulf Coast as for northeastern Atlantic Coast oysters, and greater profits for Gulf Coast oyster producers will follow.
攻击：紧紧围绕杀灭细菌的工艺来说。
让步式攻击法：先攻击条件不充分。
安全性的提高这一条件是顾客购买商品时需要考虑的因素，但不是顾客购买的充分因素。顾客是否会购买还依赖于很多其他因素共同构成，比如：牡蛎的价格是否合理，口味是否合适等。所有原因加总可能才会导致消费者对于牡蛎的购买与否。
即便安全性是人们考虑的主要因素甚至是唯一因素，能够给公司带来巨大收入，但是正如作者所说，雇用科学家设计的这套杀灭细菌的工艺有可能会制造大量的市场成本、设计成本、工艺成本；同时整个牡蛎市场、海鲜市场的大萧条有可能造成一个牡蛎经营不景气的局面，都有可能阻止利润的产生。
Ex: 题库No.180
The following is a recommendation from the personnel director to the president of Acme Publishing Company.
“Many other companies have recently stated that having their employees take the Easy Read Speed-Reading Course has greatly improved productivity. One graduate of the course was able to read a five-hundred-page report in only two hours; another graduate rose from an assistant manager to vice president of the company in under a year. Obviously, the faster you can read, the more information you can absorb in a single workday. Moreover, Easy Read costs only $500 per employee—a small price to pay when you consider the benefits to Acme. Included in this fee is a three-week seminar in Spruce City and a lifelong subscription to the Easy Read newsletter. Clearly, Acme would benefit greatly by requiring all of our employees to take the Easy Read course.”
攻击：1. 机会成本（为了得到某种利益，而放弃另外一部分事情所产生的成本）让所有员工停工去参加Easy Read课程而产生的机会成本；2. 其他成本：雇用培训师；授课地点的租赁费用
All things remain unchanged over time 外推类错误
- Past conditions remain unchanged in the present and future
过去的情况不能推得现在的情况和未来的情况
机理：时间轴上曾经的一个好的趋势，到现在未必依然很好，将来也未必可以保证；因为很多背景信息会发生剧烈的变化，人们无法预见的变化。
标志词：具体时间如seven years ago/ten years ago/last year, trend, tendancy
Ex: 题库No.2
The following appeared in a letter sent by a committee of homeowners from the Deerhaven Acres to all homeowners in Deerhaven Acres.
“Seven years ago, homeowners in nearby Brookville community adopted a set of restrictions on how the community’s yards should be landscaped and what colors the exteriors of homes should be painted. Since then, average property values have tripled in Brookville. In order to raise property values in Deerhaven Acres, we should adopt our own set of restrictions on landscaping and housepainting.”
攻击：七年前这个趋势——关注房屋颜色，未必会延续到现在，更未必会延续到将来；将来人们可能不关注房屋的颜色，更多的关注房屋的其他属性，比如房屋大小、地理位置等。
先攻击时序因果错误，再攻击外推类错误。
地产平均翻了3翻不是由于房屋规定颜色导致的。即便地产平均价格是由于房屋规定颜色导致的，但那也只是7年前的趋势。
- Present Conditions will remain unchanged into the future
现在的情况不能推得未来的情况
Ex: 题库No.240
The following appeared in a memo written by a dean at Buckingham College.
“To serve the housing needs of our students, Buckingham College should build a new dormitory. Buckingham’s enrollment is growing and, based on current trends, should double over the next fifty years, thus making existing dormitories inadequate. Moreover, the average rent for an apartment in our town has increased in recent years. Consequently, students will find it increasingly difficult to afford off-campus housing. Finally, an attractive new dormitory would make prospective students more likely to enroll at Buckingham.”
攻击：不能够以现在的趋势推得未来的情况；指出未来和现在之间存在的一些将可能发生变化的因素，比如：教学质量的下降就会导致报名人数的下降等。
Vague Evidence 论据含糊<小错误>
它的出现标志着让步式攻击在False Analogy错误中的出现
- Promise 承诺类错误<小问题>
Ex: 题库No.225
The following appeared as part of a letter to the editor of a local newspaper.
“During her three years in office, Governor Riedeburg has shown herself to be a worthy leader. Since she took office, crime has decreased, the number of jobs created per year has doubled, and the number of people choosing to live in our state has increased. These trends are likely to continue if she is reelected. In addition, Ms. Riedeburg has promised to take steps to keep big companies here, thereby providing jobs for any new residents. Anyone who looks at Ms. Riedeburg’s record can tell that she is the best-qualified candidate for governor.”
攻击：他承诺说他要采取措施使大公司留在这里，而他未必能够履行他的诺言。即便他努力旅行他的诺言，但他未必有能力让大的公司留在这里提供就业机会。即便他能够说服大公司为我们地区居民提供就业机会，但他未必能够说服大公司为新移居来的居民提供就业机会。这样一个主管的承诺就不足以导致论据支持结论。 - 依存型False Analogy
机理：作者说A做了某件事，那么B地区也应该效仿之。但作者并没有提高该事件为A带来的益处。先攻击依存型FA，再攻击FA
Ex: 题库No.43
The following appeared as part of a business plan developed by the manager of the Rialto Theater.
“Despite its downtown location, the Rialto Movie Theater, a local institution for five decades, must make big changes or close its doors forever. It should follow the example of the new Apex Theater in the mall outside of town. When the Apex opened last year, it featured a video arcade, plush carpeting and seats, and a state-of-the-art sound system. Furthermore, in a recent survey, over 85 percent of respondents reported that the high price of newly released movies prevents them from going to the movies more than five times per year. Thus, if the Rialto intends to hold on to its share of a decreasing pool of moviegoers, it must offer the same features as Apex.”
攻击：作者没有提供Apex Theater通过这些豪华设备的引进提高它的票房收入。即便Apex Theater通过这种措施能够提高收入，但是Apex Theater和R Theater地处位置不同，决定了他们的消费人群不同。而且Profit上面。。。
Analogy and Comparison 横比和纵比
- False Analogy 错误类比 重点
攻击方法：首先指出两个地区/人/行业之间的错误类比；列举两者之间的种种差异，未能排除这些可能的差异的情况下，不能够导出结论。
标志词：follow, neighboring, neighbourhood, 两个城市/人/行业的名字, 引言句出现的名字，正文未显现
Ex: 题库No.2o4
The following appeared as a letter to the editor of a farming publication.
“With continuing publicity about the need for healthful diets, and with new research about the harmful effects of eating too much sugar, nationwide demand for sugar will no doubt decline. Therefore, farmers in our state should use the land on which they currently grow sugar cane to grow peanuts, a food that is rich in protein and low in sugar. Farmers in the neighboring country of Palin greatly increased their production of peanuts last year, and their total revenues from that crop were quite high.”
攻击：P地区种植花生所导致的成功未必代表我们国家种植花生也会获得同样的成功；因为两个国家虽然在地理位置上接近，但环境、水土、气候未必相似，种种差异可能导致我们无法种植花生，并取得贸易上的收入。
Ex: 题库No.226
The following appeared as part of a memo from the manager of an automobile manufacturing company.
“Because the demand for our automobiles is expected to increase dramatically, we need to open a new manufacturing plant as soon as possible in order to continue to thrive. Our marketing projections indicate that 80 million people will want to buy our automobiles, yet our existing plant can only produce 40 million automobiles. The new plant can be opened on a part-time basis, with workers from our existing site rotating responsibilities, until an operational staff can be trained. A major airplane manufacturer was extremely successful using this part-time rotating strategy when it opened its new plant five years ago.”
攻击点：两个行业间的差异
- Incomplete or selective comparison 不完整或选择性比较
Ex: 题库No.233
The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of a company that builds shopping malls throughout the country.
“The surface of a section of Route 101, paved two years ago by McAdam Road Builders, is now badly cracked and marred by dangerous potholes. In another part of the state, a section of Route 66, paved by Appian Roadways more than four years ago, is still in good condition. Appian Roadways has recently purchased state-of-the-art paving machinery, and it has hired a new quality-control manager. Because of its superior work and commitment to quality, we should contract with Appian Roadways rather than McAdam Road Builders to construct the access roads for all our new shopping malls.”
攻击：作者拿101公路的一段和66公路中的一段来进行比较，以此来说明M公司修路水平差，A公司修路水平好。101公路中的一段开裂不代表整体修的不好，同时66号公路保存良好不代表整体修的好。即便101公路修的不好，66号公路修的好，但这也都是两公司修的诸多公路中的一条，不能由此证明两公司的修路水平。即便M公司修公路修的不好，不代表商业街修的不好。
两个公路之间的差异，因果逻辑错误 - Comparison and Variation 横比和纵比
错误类比：在空间上的错误类比——横比；外推类错误：在时间上的错误类比——纵比
False Dilemma 非此即彼类错误<小错误>
标志词：either or
攻击机理：作者往往会对一个现象列出两个理由，并否定其中一个理由，从而为加证明的说明是第二个理由。
Ex: 题库No.47
Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth’s atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.
攻击点：否定了撞击地球，因此推导是火山爆发导致的。
Unwarrented Assumption 无理假设
调查类错误；因果类错误；错误类比；外推类错误 其实也是无理假设错误。如果找不到合适的段落套，可以用无理假设的方式来套用（不区分具体的错误类别）
Hasty Generalization 急于概括类错误
任何Argument（因为都有结论）都可套用。
Ex: 题库No.168
Typically, as people age, their bone mass decreases, making them more vulnerable to bone fractures. A recent study concludes that the most effective way to reduce the risk of fractures in later life is to take twice the recommended dose of vitamin D and calcium daily. The three-year study followed a group of French women in their eighties who were nursing-home residents. The women were given daily supplements of twice the recommended dose of vitamin D and calcium. In addition, the women participated in a light weightlifting program. After three years, these women showed a much lower rate of hip fractures than is average for their age.
文章结论：每天服用双倍于推荐用量的维生素D和钙
攻击：调查类错误（片面样本） 养老院生活的，80多岁的，法国妇女
急于概括类错误，没有提供其他更好的选择。。。
Ex: 题库No.172
The Mozart School of Music should obviously be the first choice of any music student aware of its reputation. First of all, the Mozart School stresses intensive practice and training, so that students typically begin their training at a very young age. Second, the school has ample facilities and up-to-date professional equipment, and its faculty includes some of the most distinguished music teachers in the world. Finally, many Mozart graduates have gone on to be the best known and most highly paid musicians in the nation.
结论：Mozart音乐学校显然应该是学音乐学生的第一选择。
急于概括类错误，没有提供其他的音乐学校。
